UPDATE (21:45 GMT): Finally just saw the volume we’ve been looking for, predicted jump materialized.
UPDATE (16:44 GMT): Gox DDOS confirmed. Our prediction of a continuation pattern proved correct (97.5 now vs 91 at posting) and we maintain a positive bias, though proper breakout catalyzation may be difficult with the trickles of volume making it through Gox. Stay tuned for updates.
UPDATE (13:01 GMT) : Looks like Gox is down. Potential DDOS. May drastically affect the time-sensitive nature of trend analysis – further updates once the situation is resolved.
Once again we’re seeing a notable low volume volatility squeeze. In shorter term trading it’s forming a symmetrical triangle – generally considered to be a continuation pattern. In this case, it occurred after a climb from the low 80s up to 95, which would indicate a continuation upward. While symmetrical triangles are known to break in either direction, we see a strong bias to the upside. Look for an upward breakout beyond the bound of the increasingly shallow triangle accompanied by higher volume to signal a 10-15 point jump. In the chance that the triangle breaks to the downside, we wouldn’t be surprised to see a sharp fall off to test 55 again.
In this case, the upside bias is reinforced by longer term upward resistance testing around 95 while sellers appear to be weakening, developing an ascending lower bound. As our readers know by know, this ascending triangle pattern tends to signal an upward breakout. If that 95 bound is broken with any respectable volume, again look for a jump upwards in the 10-15 range. You’ll see from the second chart below that we’re now pushing back up against the same 95 bound we used to predict the drop a few days ago.
Below is a chart showing Bollinger bands over that last few days. This offers a helpful visualization of a volatility squeeze as the area between the bands narrows significantly. On the right is where we are now where you’ll notice the bands are tighter than they’ve been in days.
You still think its going up ? its been hoovering around the 90 /93 for today.
Whats the reason you think that the bands are tighter, not alot of volume going on on the xch
It appears as though people are in a holding pattern until they see some directional indication. Expect a violent move once this is broken. Historically DDOS has led to a strong panic-driven downward movement (we’re posting about this shortly), but we believe those left in the market are of a more stable mindset than the entrants pre-bubble. Anyone left knows exchange issues are part of the game. Given that trading has held within a tight band despite the exchange difficulties, we’re still biased towards an upside movement. Notably, trading has also trended above the EMAs and the EMAs are about to cross (H4), which is a signal for the symmetrical triangle to breakout upwards.
Thanks Jonathan
Looking forward to your next articles
Thanks Jonathan, appreciate the work you guys are doing!
Happy to be of service.
It’s extremely valuable, you can look forward to my ‘Right again!’ stamp of approval once target prices are realized from here on out.
Please keep up the good work.
Right again!
r u a wizard
Your analyses are almost flawless, thanks a lot. With help like that I might one day actually recover from the last week’s Wednesday losses. Too bad with this much volatility I can’t just buy BTC and forget about this thing for a while