Update: Feb 17, 1:32p EST This morning, Mt. Gox announced a technical solution to the bitcoin withdrawal issue is being tested. A timeline for actual reinstatement of withdrawals remains to be seen, though an update was promised by Thursday. As discussed / expected in our original discussion below, XBT / USD has since climbed on the news and the impact has been more significant at Mt. Gox (up ~35%) than the rest of the market (up ~7%), like for two reasons: The general dissociation of Mt. Gox and the rest of the market as outlined below Anyone looking to capitalize on arbitrage …

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This morning, US-based Coinsetter launched their much-anticipated bitcoin trading platform. The company was one of the first in the space to raise venture capital, closing a $500K round in April co-led by Barry Silbert’s Bitcoin Opportunity Fund and Tribeca Venture Partners. As an exchange looking to serve both US and international clients, Coinsetter is taking a unique approach to navigating the regulatory landscape and offering deep liquidity for its customers. The company was founded by Jaron Lukasiewicz, previously an Associate at The CapStreet Group, a private equity firm in Houston, Texas. Coinsetter was initially focused on offering margin trading and …

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ASICMiner, one of the best-known bitcoin companies to issue BTC-denominated equity, released their latest earnings update last week. This was the second such report from the company, with the first released in late July. As both were issued via bitcoin forum threads with links to external files, this report is intended to offer context and additional clarity around those figures. ASICMiner (AM) initially raised capital by means of an equity offering in 2012, with share priced at 0.1 BTC each. The company generates income by mining directly and indirectly, as well as selling mining equipment to others. Previously a favorite …

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The recent run-up in bitcoin exchange rates and related volatility have created a number of tradable scenarios for thoughtful market participants. One less obvious effect of the dramatic price movement is the tightening of the cross-exchange price differential between Mt. Gox and Bitstamp, the leading USD bitcoin exchanges by volume. As we first pointed out in June, exchange rates at Mt. Gox and Bitstamp have diverged after Mt. Gox stopped servicing fiat withdrawals for many of its customers. For more background on the causes of this, see our previous research on the matter. More important for market participants at the …

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Discussions of a possible US default have dominated the news cycle for the past few weeks. This is now the second time in as many years that debates over the debt ceiling have pushed the boundaries of the US government’s borrowing infrastructure. Having seen a similar scenario unfold in 2011, reactions from financial markets this time around may be foreseeable. Incidentally, this scenario may also provide a valuable opportunity to understand bitcoin’s developing role in the macroeconomic landscape. In Familiar Territory The current political disputes in Washington have led to a series of escalating outcomes. As the result of a …

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Silk Road, the online drug bazaar that has eluded authorities and been ingrained in the bitcoin narrative for years, was shut down yesterday. Ross Ulbricht was named in the court documents outlining Silk Road’s activities, as were a number of key data points that offer insights into the impact the world’s most infamous retail website has had on bitcoin. Ulbricht was caught as a result of human error and excessive risks related to physical delivery of false identification being delivered to his home address in San Francisco from Canada. After tracking the package, authorities found their way to Ulbricht and …

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The first panel discussion at today’s Inside Bitcoin conference featured an array of investors from both the digital currency space and more established financial institutions. In addition to offering insight into what they look for in potential investments, they were also given an opportunity to opine on why bitcoin has immense potential for positive social impact. The panelists included: Thompson Clark – Editor, Agora Financial Tuur Demeester – Author, MacroTrends Pamir Gelenbe – Venture Partner, Hummingbird VC Abelardo Mendez – Director, Knight Capital Group Brock Pierce – Executive Chairman, Playsino Drew Little – Founder, The Illuminated Ventures Project (moderator) What …

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Last month we noted the surprising correlation between USD and BTC. From May 1 through June 20, the two currencies shared a 0.76 correlation, which actually increased to 0.89 when comparing bitcoin with three-day-old USD levels. Since then, markets have reacted to a series of macroeconomic events that not only broke that correlation, but actually reversed it, such that BTC has been inversely tracing USD with remarkable accuracy ever since. Fed Influence May Be Inescapable, Even For Bitcoin In a press conference on June 19, Ben Bernanke said the Fed may begin tapering its asset purchases as early as later …

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At a conference held last week in DC, the European Central Bank presented their opinion of virtual currencies including discussions about bitcoin. On slide 6 of their presentation they made a striking argument: bitcoin does not fulfill any of the three functions of money: Medium of Exchange, Unit of Account, or Store of Value. Most likely, their counterpoints to these three functions relate to the large volatility that bitcoin’s exchange rate has experienced since it’s inception. While it is difficult to refute their exact points since the soundtrack is not included, it does raise an interesting question of how the …

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